Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 9.429756e-05 0.000112 0.000132 0.000154 0.000178 0.000204 0.000233
2024-10-20 6.947002e-05 0.000092 0.000118 0.000150 0.000186 0.000225 0.000272
2024-10-27 5.737176e-05 0.000083 0.000113 0.000150 0.000194 0.000245 0.000305
2024-11-03 4.371955e-05 0.000069 0.000102 0.000143 0.000194 0.000253 0.000326
2024-11-10 3.751612e-05 0.000064 0.000099 0.000145 0.000203 0.000271 0.000356
2024-11-17 2.982174e-05 0.000056 0.000092 0.000141 0.000204 0.000280 0.000377
2024-11-24 2.544152e-05 0.000052 0.000089 0.000142 0.000211 0.000295 0.000403
2024-12-01 2.108980e-05 0.000047 0.000085 0.000141 0.000215 0.000308 0.000427
2024-12-08 1.657956e-05 0.000041 0.000079 0.000136 0.000214 0.000312 0.000441
2024-12-15 1.316000e-05 0.000036 0.000075 0.000133 0.000215 0.000320 0.000459
2024-12-22 1.059635e-05 0.000033 0.000071 0.000131 0.000217 0.000328 0.000477
2024-12-29 9.052857e-06 0.000031 0.000070 0.000133 0.000224 0.000343 0.000503
2025-01-05 6.894927e-06 0.000028 0.000067 0.000133 0.000230 0.000358 0.000532
2025-01-12 4.564160e-06 0.000023 0.000061 0.000128 0.000229 0.000364 0.000551
2025-01-19 3.462125e-06 0.000021 0.000060 0.000129 0.000236 0.000381 0.000582
2025-01-26 1.923282e-06 0.000017 0.000053 0.000122 0.000231 0.000381 0.000593
2025-02-02 1.413765e-06 0.000016 0.000053 0.000124 0.000239 0.000400 0.000627
2025-02-09 7.355470e-07 0.000013 0.000048 0.000120 0.000238 0.000405 0.000643
2025-02-16 4.544857e-07 0.000012 0.000047 0.000121 0.000244 0.000421 0.000673
2025-02-23 2.164529e-07 0.000010 0.000045 0.000120 0.000248 0.000432 0.000698
2025-03-02 5.612794e-08 0.000008 0.000041 0.000116 0.000246 0.000436 0.000712
2025-03-09 5.395406e-09 0.000007 0.000039 0.000114 0.000246 0.000442 0.000730
2025-03-16 NaN 0.000006 0.000036 0.000112 0.000248 0.000451 0.000751